Monday, March 31, 2008

Housing Declines of 50%

Some have estimated the severity of the housing decline to include drops as much as 50% from peak to trough in certain markets. People don't just expect it. The markets are betting on it. Below are values of where the Case Shiller futures markets are trading.

S&P/Case-Shiller Index - January 2008 v Highs

High High Jan 2008 High v Nov 2012 High v

Month Index Index Jan 2008 Futures* Nov 2012
Atl Jul 07 136.47 127.08 -6.88%

Bos Sep 05 182.48 162.59 -10.90% -11.80% -22.70%
Char Aug 07 135.88 131.70 -3.08%

Chi Sep 06 168.60 156.47 -7.19% -7.10% -14.29%
Clev Jul 06 123.49 108.49 -12.15%

Dal Jun 07 126.47 118.56 -6.25%

Den Aug 06 140.27 128.98 -8.05% -13.90% -21.95%
Det Dec 05 127.05 100.17 -21.16%

LA Sep 06 273.94 224.41 -18.08% -27.70% -47.78%
LV Aug 06 234.78 186.05 -20.76% -16.80% -37.56%
Mia Dec 06 280.87 225.40 -19.75% -30.80% -50.55%
Min Sep 06 171.12 151.16 -11.66%

NY Jun 06 215.83 200.49 -7.11% -19.00% -26.11%
Pho Jun 06 227.42 180.06 -20.82%

Port Jul 07 186.51 178.81 -4.13%

SD Nov 05 250.34 197.45 -21.13% -21.80% -42.93%
Sea Jul 07 192.30 181.62 -5.55%

SF May 06 218.37 183.81 -15.83% -15.70% -31.53%
Tamp Jul 06 238.09 194.64 -18.25%

WDC May 06 251.07 212.83 -15.23% -22.00% -35.23%
10-C Jun 06 226.29 196.06 -13.36% -21.50% -34.86%
20-C Jul 06 206.52 180.65 -12.53%








* based on CME Settlements March 18, 2008
Source: S&P, Bloomberg, TFS

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