Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Bracing for Phase 2 Decline

Get ready.....

*Dollar reaches all time low versus Euro. Is China converting reserves into alternate currencies? Dollar tipping point in question. Currency devaluation of world's largest borrower.
*Crude Oil reaches all time high.
*Nearly every financial institution posted losses in Q1...Market rallies because pessimism already priced in. Reference CitiGroup / Merrill. Bank of America / Washington Mutual bring surprises.
*Housing price decline accelerates. Biased National Association of Realtor's number indicates increasing decline. Case Shiller number due August 29. CME Case Shiller futures pricing major declines into August of 2009.
*Securitized debt underwriting trending towards 20% of 2006 and 2007 issuance. Mortgage Litigation skyrockets.
*Fed may be out of financial fixes (i.e. Overnight Fed Funds Rate / Term Auction Facility)...inflation concerns rising. England Central Banks mimic fed's toxic debt purchasing maneuver.
*VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) begins new rally after fears allayed by Fed fixes and successful hybric (equity / debt) funding by Wall Street investment banks.
*Credit Default Swaps and Interbank Counter Party risk concerns still near all time high. Ted Spread still posting impressive highs.
*ABX (Securitized Home Equity Indices) reaches all time lows in non-prime and sub-prime tranches....additional 50% declines from January 2008. Reference ABX-HE-BBB 07-2 Roll. $32.5 Oct. 07, $22.5 Jan. O8, $10 Apr. 08.
*IMF warns of systemic risk and $1 trillion credit losses, $250bn posted so far.

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